Can I just exercise to lose weight instead of dieting?

if your diet is as healthy as you say it is, then yeah all you do is throw in some exercise. You're right about the eat less than you burn concept and the lose too much too soon thing. Remember though in order to burn fat, you need to be between 60 and 80% of your max target heart rate during that jog/walk. And on the days you don't jog/walk, do something else to burn more calories than you eat. Hope this helps